As egg prices soar to nearly $10 per dozen in some areas due to the devastating H5N1 avian influenza outbreak, consumers are puzzled why chicken meat costs remain relatively stable despite both products coming from poultry.
Key Insights
- Egg prices have increased by 36.8% to $4.15 per dozen, with wholesale prices reaching $8.07 per dozen nationally
- The 2022 avian flu outbreak destroyed 39% of the U.S. egg-laying flock, with over 19.63 million birds across 29 states currently infected
- Egg-laying hens take at least 4.5 months to mature and begin production, creating a significant recovery delay
- Broiler chicken farms recover more quickly from outbreaks due to their shorter production cycle and concentration in warmer southeastern states where the virus spreads less readily
- The USDA is investing up to $1 billion for farm biosecurity improvements and farmer compensation
Record-Breaking Egg Price Inflation
American consumers are experiencing dramatic increases in egg prices while chicken meat costs remain relatively stable. Grade A large eggs have jumped 36.8% from $2.52 to $4.15 per dozen, with a staggering 53% price increase between January 2024 and January 2025. The national wholesale average reached $8.07 per dozen, with some regions seeing prices approach $10. The severity of these increases stands in stark contrast to the USDA’s overall food inflation forecast of just 2.2% for the year.
The primary driver behind these astronomical price increases is the ongoing H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak. The disease devastated commercial egg operations beginning in 2022, when approximately 147.25 million birds were lost, representing 39% of the nation’s egg-laying flock. The situation continues to worsen, with more than 19.63 million birds across 29 states currently infected and requiring immediate culling to prevent further spread.
Why Egg Production Recovers Slowly
The egg industry faces unique challenges that prevent quick recovery from viral outbreaks. Unlike meat chickens, laying hens require significant time to mature before they can produce eggs. It takes approximately 4.5 months for a hen to reach egg-laying maturity, creating a substantial delay between flock replacement and renewed production. This biological reality creates an inelastic supply that cannot quickly respond to market demands, especially following major flock losses.
Compounding the avian flu impact, egg producers have faced additional challenges from extreme weather events and climate disasters between 2022 and 2024. These environmental factors have further complicated production schedules and recovery efforts. With Easter approaching, demand for eggs is expected to increase seasonally, placing additional pressure on an already strained supply chain and potentially driving prices up by more than 20% this year.
Chicken Meat: A Different Production Model
The broiler chicken industry, which supplies meat rather than eggs, has maintained relatively stable pricing despite the same avian influenza threat. This divergence stems from fundamental differences in production methods. Broiler chickens are raised specifically for meat in a much faster production cycle, typically reaching market weight in just 6-7 weeks. This rapid turnover allows the industry to recover quickly from outbreaks, maintaining consistent supply levels and stable pricing.
The FRED Blog compares chicken meat and egg prices since 2022 to discuss the differences between price inflation, disinflation and deflation https://t.co/sznIdsy54B pic.twitter.com/4SH5zz240Y
— St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) February 8, 2024
Geography also plays a crucial role in protecting the broiler industry. Most commercial meat chicken operations are concentrated in the southeastern United States, where warmer climates reduce the risk of avian influenza transmission. The virus spreads more efficiently in cooler northern regions where many egg-laying operations are located. Additionally, the broiler industry’s massive scale provides redundancy that helps maintain market stability even when individual farms experience outbreaks.
Government Response and Future Outlook
The federal government has recognized the severity of the situation, with the USDA planning to spend up to $1 billion to enhance farm biosecurity measures and compensate farmers for losses. However, experts acknowledge these interventions will have limited impact on short-term egg prices, as the biological constraints of egg production cannot be overcome through policy alone. Consumers with inelastic demand for eggs—considered essential items with few viable substitutes—will likely continue facing elevated prices throughout 2025.
The divergence between egg and chicken meat prices highlights the complex nature of our food production systems and their vulnerability to biological threats. As the H5N1 outbreak continues affecting flocks nationwide, Americans can expect continued pressure on egg prices while chicken meat remains relatively affordable. This situation demonstrates how seemingly related products can experience dramatically different market outcomes based on production methods, recovery timelines, and geographic factors.
