A global study of more than 240,000 people reveals a disturbing link between ultra-processed foods and early death, with Americans potentially facing over 124,000 premature deaths annually due to their consumption habits.
At a Glance
- A new international study found that every 10% increase in ultra-processed food consumption raises premature death risk by 3%
- Ultra-processed foods make up approximately 70% of the American food supply and over half of calorie intake in the US and UK
- Up to 14% of premature deaths before age 70 in the US and UK could be linked to ultra-processed food consumption
- The NOVA classification system identifies ultra-processed foods as those containing artificial colors, flavors, sweeteners, and numerous additives
- Health experts recommend an 85/15 approach: 85% whole foods and no more than 15% ultra-processed foods
Understanding Ultra-Processed Foods and Their Impact
Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) have become a cornerstone of modern diets, accounting for approximately 70% of the American food supply. These products extend far beyond obvious junk foods to include many items consumers might consider relatively healthy. According to the NOVA classification system used by researchers, UPFs contain industrial formulations with five or more ingredients, including substances not typically found in home kitchens like hydrogenated oils, modified starches, and various additives.
“These are foods that definitely don’t exist in nature by themselves,” explains Scott Keatley, R.D. “Ultra-processed foods are engineered for shelf stability and hyper-palatability, not nutritional integrity.”
The health concerns associated with UPFs extend beyond their often high levels of salt, sugar, and fat. Researchers point to harmful effects from industrial processing methods and artificial ingredients that can trigger insulin resistance, increase visceral fat accumulation, promote chronic inflammation, and contribute to obesity — all risk factors for serious diseases and premature death.
The Global Study’s Findings
Published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine on April 28, 2025, the groundbreaking research analyzed data from over 240,000 people across eight countries. The results showed a consistent pattern: as ultra-processed food consumption increased, so did the risk of premature death. Specifically, each 10% increase in calories from UPFs corresponded to a 3% higher risk of dying before age 70 from any cause.
“We first estimated a linear association between the dietary share of UPFs and all-cause mortality, so that each 10% increase in the participation of UPFs in the diet increases the risk of death from all causes by 3%,” states Dr. Eduardo Nilson, the study’s lead researcher.
The numbers translate to alarming real-world implications. The researchers calculated that in 2018 alone, approximately 124,107 premature deaths in the United States and 17,781 in England could be attributed to ultra-processed food consumption. In countries where UPFs make up more than half of calorie intake, like the US and UK, up to 14% of early deaths might be linked to these food products.
As you add more ultraprocessed foods to your diet, your risk of a premature death from any cause rises, according to a new meta-analysis of research involving more than 240,000 people. https://t.co/c0fe8WXdR8
— Yahoo News (@YahooNews) April 29, 2025
The Need for Caution in Interpretation
While the study adds to growing evidence against ultra-processed foods, several experts caution against drawing definitive conclusions. The research shows correlation rather than direct causation, and observational studies have inherent limitations. Professor Kevin McConway points out terminology issues in the research that might overstate certainty about causation. “It’s still far from clear whether consumption of just any UPF at all is bad for health, or what aspect of UPFs might be involved,” he notes.
“It’s not inherently that the foods are a one-way ticket to early death,” explains Jessica Cording, R.D.
Dr. Stephen Burgess adds further context: “This study assesses observational associations rather than interventions, and so it is not able to make reliable causal claims. That is to say, it shows that individuals who consume higher levels of ultraprocessed foods have greater risk of premature mortality, rather than showing that increasing your consumption of ultraprocessed foods would increase your mortality risk.”
Practical Recommendations for Healthier Eating
Despite the need for more research, nutrition experts aren’t waiting to recommend dietary changes. Many suggest an 85/15 approach — filling 85% of the diet with whole, minimally processed foods while allowing 15% for ultra-processed options. This balanced approach acknowledges both nutritional needs and real-world practicality for most consumers who find UPFs convenient and appealing.
“The authors showed that regardless of the general consumption levels, there were consistently higher mortality levels among the subset of the population within each of those countries who consumed the most vs. the least UPF,” explains Christopher Gardner, PhD.
Healthier alternatives to ultra-processed foods include whole grains, fresh fruits and vegetables, lean proteins, nuts, and dairy products. By gradually shifting toward these minimally processed options, individuals can potentially reduce their health risks while still enjoying varied and satisfying meals. The research team also calls for broader policy changes, suggesting governments should update dietary guidelines, regulate food marketing, limit sales in schools and workplaces, and consider taxation on ultra-processed products.
