A failed Soviet Venus probe from 1972 is plummeting toward Earth this week, with its specially designed heat shield potentially allowing it to survive reentry and crash-land at high speed.
Quick Takes
- Kosmos 482, a Soviet satellite launched in 1972 for Venus exploration, is expected to make an uncontrolled reentry to Earth around May 10, 2025.
- The 1,091-pound descent module has a heat shield designed for Venus, increasing chances it could survive Earth’s atmosphere intact.
- Potential impact zones span between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude, though oceans are the most likely landing site.
- Experts estimate the odds of the satellite hitting a person are extremely low—roughly one in 10,000 for hitting any person, and one in 10 billion for hitting a specific individual.
- If damage occurs, the Russian government would be liable under international space law.
Cold War Relic Returns
After more than 50 years circling Earth, Kosmos 482—a Soviet spacecraft initially destined for Venus—is making its final descent. The spacecraft was launched in March 1972 as part of the Soviet Union’s Venera program but was stranded in Earth orbit when its rocket booster malfunctioned. While its sister probe Venera 8 successfully landed on Venus later that year, Kosmos 482 has remained in Earth’s orbit as a Cold War relic, gradually losing altitude over the decades.
The main body of the satellite fell back to Earth in 1981 and likely burned up, but the reentry capsule — designed to withstand Venus’s harsh conditions — has remained in orbit. Scientists tracking the spacecraft now predict it will reenter Earth’s atmosphere between May 7 and May 13, 2025, with May 10 being the most likely date. Unlike most satellites that burn up during reentry, this spacecraft presents unique concerns.
Built to Survive
What makes Kosmos 482 particularly concerning is its robust design. “As this is a lander that was designed to survive passage through the Venus atmosphere, it is possible that it will survive reentry through the Earth atmosphere intact, and impact intact,” said Marco Langbroek, an amateur satellite tracker who has been monitoring Kosmos 482.
“It’s completely impossible that the parachute system it had to land on Venus is going to operate,” McDowell said. “And so it’s just going to slam into the ground . . . So it’s [like] a car falling out of the air at 100 to 200 miles per hour. ‘So it doesn’t destroy a city block or anything like that, but if it lands on your house or on you, that’s not going to be good,’ he said.” – Harvard University astronomer and astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell
The descent module weighs 1,091 pounds (495 kg) and could hit the ground at approximately 150 mph (242 km/h)—similar to a meteorite impact. Although the spacecraft was equipped with a parachute for its intended Venus landing, experts agree this system is unlikely to function after five decades in space, increasing the risk of a hard landing. The spacecraft’s specialized heat shield, ironically, is what makes its survival more likely than typical space debris.
Unpredictable Landing Zone
Tracking the potential impact location presents significant challenges. “With an orbital inclination of 52 degrees, the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft could come down anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude,” explained Marco Langbroek, who tracks space objects. This vast area includes portions of Europe, Asia, the Americas, Africa, and Australia — essentially most inhabited regions of Earth.
“If this were to cause damage — or worse, to hurt someone — that would be something that the Russian government would be liable for,” – Harvard University astronomer and astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell
However, experts emphasize that the most likely landing spot is in an ocean, as water covers approximately 71% of Earth’s surface. Even for land areas, the odds heavily favor uninhabited regions. Satellite trackers continue monitoring the spacecraft’s descent to provide more precise predictions as the reentry date approaches, but pinpoint accuracy will remain elusive until the final hours.
Risk Assessment
Despite the inevitable media attention such events attract, experts stress that the risk to individuals is extraordinarily low. “If you land something in a random part of the Earth, the chance that it hits a person is about one in 10,000,” noted Jonathan McDowell, Harvard University astronomer and astrophysicist. “And that is because most of the Earth is not covered with people, even today.” He added, “The chance that it hits you is then one in 10 billion — smaller than that. You do not have to lose any sleep over this.”
The Kosmos 482 incident highlights growing concerns about space debris. There are approximately 3,000 dead satellites currently orbiting Earth, with more being added as global space programs expand. Previous incidents of space debris reaching Earth include a Samsung satellite that landed in Michigan and debris from the International Space Station discovered in Florida — though neither caused injuries. Scientists are exploring solutions like “space garbage trucks” to safely collect and dispose of orbiting debris before it becomes a hazard.
