(PatriotsUnited.org) – Fresh polls released ahead of March’s California Senate primary election shows that Republicans likely face an uphill battle, with their candidates possibly being excluded from November’s elections.
Set for 5th March, the Golden State’s primary polls include a key Senate race for late Senator Dianne Feinstein’s former seat, in which candidates have been warring over controversial issues including finance, immigration and the housing crisis. On behalf of the Democrats, three incumbent members of Congress—Representatives Barbara Lee, Katie Porter, and Adam Schiff—are in the running, while Republicans have largely thrown their support behind former baseball star Steve Garvey.
California’s unusual “jungle primary” system forces all candidates, regardless of their party, to run on one ballot during primaries. This means that the top two candidates of any primary must go on to compete against each other for any given seat in a general election. In staunchly blue California, this often means two Democrats fight it out over the same role in a general election.
A poll released by Emerson College this week, which polled 1,000 registered voters between 16th and 18th February 2024, suggests that Schiff and Garvey are most likely to compete in November’s general election. It found that Schiff was ahead with some 28 percent of voters backing him, with Garvey trailing him on 22 percent of the support. It concluded that Porter was way off a win, on just 16 percent, with Lee garnering just 9 percent of eligible supporters.
California GOP spokeswoman Ellie Hockenbury expressed her positivity going forward, despite the challenging data. She said that Garvey was still in with a chance given other polling trends in the Republicans’ favor. Garvey also echoed her remarks, stressing that polls suggested his campaign was on a road to success due to his push for “practical solutions”.
Still, not every poll suggests as bright an outlook for Garvey. One survey carried out by the California Elections & Policy Poll concluded that Schiff was leading by far, with 25 per cent of the vote, with Porter and Garvey languishing on 15 percentage points respectively.
The final outcome aside, Republicans are unlikely to outcompete Democrats in the firmly blue state. While GOP candidates may fail to make the cut for November’s Senate race, Republican-leaning voters will still hold sway in the general election. This is because in races where a pair of candidates from one party compete, the victorious candidate usually appeals to a wider coalition of voters, including people who would usually vote for the candidate’s opposing party.
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